Gabriel Davis is a wide receiver for the Buffalo Bills. In fact, on an EPA-per-play basis, throwing short to Landry has a worse point expectation than running the ball. The most important stat for us in relation to Diggs' post-route productivity: touchdowns. Our new Receiver Tracking Metrics (RTMs) use player tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats to analyze every route run -- including those that are untargeted -- and assess receiver performance in three distinct phases: getting open, contesting and making the catch, and generating yards after the catch (YAC). Think of it like this: CPOE measures the catching ability of a receiver, accounting for his ability to get open. window.PLAYERCARDS_CONFIG={affiliateCode:"fpros_cards"}; This FantasyPros staff member is an excellent contributor to our site who brings excellent analysis and content. Tyron Johnson is the best receiver in the NFL according to Yards Per Route Run. With NFL+, stay connected throughout the rest of the NFL offseason with special content from Training Camp, Hall of Fame, and more! The teams to sport multiple wide receivers on this list were Atlanta (Jones and Mohamed Sanu), Denver (Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders), LA Rams (Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp), Miami (Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker), Minnesota (Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs), and Oakland (Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper). Thomas caught 87.9 percent of his targets, landing in the top five in that category. Davante Adams, Packers (6-1, 215 pounds) Adams, 28, came back from an injury-curbed season to light it up as big-time scorer again in 2020 setting a career high . I believe this is because PFF includes passing plays called back due to offensive penalties in the number of, Worst Passer Ratings In Every Year Since the Merger, The Top Quarterbacks And The Receivers They Threw It To, Yards per Route Run, Yards per Target, and Targets per Route Run, The History of Black Quarterbacks in the NFL (2023 Update), Brock Purdy Looks To Make Quarterback Super Bowl History, Zach Wilson and The Worst Passer Rating In The NFL, The Eagles Rushing Offense Is Better Than Their Opponents Passing Offense, I suppose one counter to that would be that Stills was competing with. Logos were compiled by the amazing SportsLogos.net. Otherwise, actual targeted receivers would appear to be less likely to complete a catch. TD. These include route type, depth of route, coverage type (Cover 3, Man 2 and so on), position at snap (wide, slot, tight, backfield), distance from sideline, time after snap, down/distance/yard line and whether or not the play featured play-action. Please see our Contributors and Sources page for data source details. So while wed like more data, we should probably expect players who show the ability to separate above expectation on routes at these depths to continue to do so.7, Best and worst receiver seasons on intermediate passes as measured by separation over expected (SOE) per play, 2017-19. While its unlikely well see Beasley see significant playing time in 2014, Im a little more interested in watching him now than I was before this post. Any idea where they get this data from? This creates chances for catch-and-run opportunities. In some ways, TPRR is like completion percentage. How would this formula work for Stills and Johnson? Time Period. Interestingly, among the three target depths, SOE on intermediate passes appears to be the most stable year to year. The lone outlier there is Robert Foster, and his situation clearly changed from 2018 to 2019. Of those, one was Atlantas Julio Jones, who ran routes on 93% of Atlantas passing plays through the first five games of the year, but missed the final eleven with a fractured foot. Bruce Arians offense wasnt very conducive toward fantasy success at the tight end position, ranking last in targets and fantasy points among all teams over the past three years. There is a 33% increase in the number of WR1/WR2 seasons for a wide receiver that hit 2.00 yards per route run when he also ran a minimum of 250 routes in his rookie year. For example, we can see that A.J. Will the Cowboys and Packers invest in more star power at receiver? Being quick and fast isnt enough for NFL success; just ask Yamon Figurs or Darrius Heyward-Bey, both of whom ran a 4.3 40-yard dash at the NFL combine. . With our new route-classification model, we can evaluate which receivers are essentially the most predictable -- or different from the average. So we decided to focus on separation at the moment the ball arrives, on the theory that scheme and QB play have the least influence at this crucial moment in a pass play. We think these weights make logical sense, in that a receiver has to get open to have the chance to make a catch. At the time, Jernigan had barely seen the field, so he hadnt run many routes, either. Deep targets (at least 15 air yards) are the most valuable in football on a per-play basis, but theyre also the throws with the tightest windows. The fact that theres no competition for snaps within the backfield and that hes used in all phases of the game helps keep his upside higher than almost any other player in fantasy and means gamescript cant take him out of any game. Another interesting feature of short-target SOE is that a players ability to consistently get open on short throws appears to be mostly nonexistent. (For example, pass-catchers often receive an official target stat when the pass was clearly a throwaway; RTMs exclude throwaways.). ESPN Analytics is launching RTMs leaderboards next month in conjunction with FiveThirtyEight -- you'll be able to view updated numbers every week -- but we're unveiling the metrics now to provide a reference to explain what they're all about. For each, a benchmark is set based on the context and dynamic inner workings of the play. The defense is typically willing to allow an offense to throw to wide-open players short, then rally to make a tackle for a short gain. The number of targets a player sees per route happens to be a very sticky metric. This route is a little easier to explain, primarily because of one infallible truth: Everyone loves the long ball. So which is it: elite talent, or elite situation? Did Pats make Mac Jones happy? 300 routes run). Jones averaged 6.0 fewer routes run per game than Hopkins over this stretch. REC. Again it seems instructive to compare Thomas to Jones. Regular-season passes of between 5 and 15 air yards. HaSS layers height into the traditional speed score equation by also dividing the player's height by the average wide receiver height: 73.0 inches (6'1") or average tight end height: 76.4 . Running backs saw a 0.87 correlation between raw touches and fantasy points. The elements of savvy route running footwork, head and body fakes, disguising the intent of the route, changing direction sharply without losing speed all appear to be more reliable indicators of NFL skill and talent than speed. What does that mean? Steve Johnson was the anti-Stills. Other players appear able to consistently create separation on short targets Jarvis Landry is one example but the value of Landrys targets as measured by EPA are much lower than those directed at Thomas. For example, Kenny Stills had the most extreme breakdown of any player in the NFL in 2013. Wide Receivers (14) 1-ranked player for each was the best running that particular route. Or write about sports? For instance, DeAndre Hopkins played on over 90 percent of his teams snaps in every game he played last year. 32 lingering post-draft questions: Will Lions have regrets? When looking at any metric or measurable, it is always best to marry it up with other available data points to paint a clearer picture. Quarterbacks sometimes can make receivers look good, but sometimes it's the other way around. That's not bad for a strictly objective measure as something as mercurial as receiver performance. Source: NFL Next Gen Stats, ESPN Stats & Information Group. The final model does a decent job of predicting separation at the catch point on a given play.4 We used its predictions as a baseline for performance and compared each receivers actual separation on a given play to what the model expected an average players separation would have been, given similar circumstances. All logos are the trademark & property of their owners and not Sports Reference LLC. When we account for the most impactful context that affects a receivers most important job getting open Thomas is routinely above average in creating that separation. Today, we are introducing another new machine-learning tool: the Route Recognition model, which classifies routes by type, in real time, with the help of player-tracking data. Namely, which route did the pass catcher run to get open before catching the ball? With year-to-year R-squared values of around 0.3, these three metrics are the most stable existing metrics that measure wide receiver performance. However, hes also somewhat at a detriment for fantasy, in that he runs a low number of routes per game. This makes it very easy for us to compare the two statistics: essentially, the question boils down to how valuable it is to know a receivers number of Targets per Route Run. Our new Route Recognition model leverages this data as inputs into a model that assigns a route type to every eligible receiver on every pass play, including tight ends and running backs. This suggests our metrics are truly isolating three independent skills that comprise receiver ability. You don't currently have any notifications. AP Offensive Rookie of the Year: Ja'Marr Chase. 4. While there are some issues with survivorship bias here, Im not sure (1) how to get around them, and (2) that those concerns bias the results in a way thats more biased towards one of the variables were examining than the others. So how much insight can we gather from a wide receivers yards per route in his rookie year? Robinson's 206 yards gained on corner routes led all receivers (minimum 75 total targets, regardless of route), and a lot of those yards were gained on catches he wasn't expected to make, per NGS. The resulting lists have reasonably strong face validity players at the top of the leaderboards tend to be widely regarded as good route runners suggesting SOE could be useful as a descriptive metric. Among the three metrics YPRR, Y/T, and TPRR its Targets Per Route Run thats the most consistent from year to year. You don't currently have any notifications. Advanced stats offer insight into a Wide Receiver's performance beyond the standard box score. If you are looking for the raw data behind this article, do not hesitate to reach out. With the help of player-tracking technology, the Next Gen Stats Analytics team set out to answer that exact question, decoding one of the key elements of an offensive play call by using player-tracking data to measure which routes pass catchers are running on any given pass play. Brown's 2019 season was buoyed by his ability to generate yards after catch despite a mediocre Catch Score, and that Cooper Kupp's 'amazing 2021 season did not rely on any one specific ability but was consistently solid across all three components: Here are the top-five seasons in YAC Score since 2017: The top-five Catch Score seasons include who we might expect and then Marvin Jones Jr. Jones had an amazing season for the Lions in 2017, with 1,101 yards and a league-leading 18.0 yards per catch. He led the league lead in catch rate above expectation (actual catch percentage compared to expected catch percentage), but among the top 25 wide receivers in that category (minimum 50 targets), he's the only one who averaged fewer than 10 air yards per target (8.1). Cooper Kupp had three of them and was 0.5 points away from a fourth in Week 6. The next-closest players in that category were the Rams' Cooper Kupp (99) and the Browns' Jarvis Landry (96). For example, if the tracking data indicates a pass will be completed 75% of the time and the receiver actually catches the pass, he is credited with plus-0.25. Green (32.8), Julio Jones (30.7), and Tyreek Hill (24.6). All rights reserved. He leads all non-quarterbacks in fantasy points per game over the past two seasons. The Next Gen Stats analytics team identifies 14 unheralded players who should be kept off the free agency market by their squads. Yards per route run simply takes the total receiving yards a player accumulated in a given year and divides that by how many routes on passing plays he actually ran. Interestingly, Thielen ranked 10th-best in targets percentage while Diggs ranked 24th, which might help justify the ADP disparity (11th to Diggs 16th), but its not a given that Kirk Cousins will prefer Thielen to the degree Case Keenum had. Heres the best-fit formula: N+1 TPRR = 0.062 + 0.671 * TPRR (R^2 = 0.41). There are always going to be outliers on both ends of the spectrum for every statistic and measurable. These short passes, however, are where Michael Thomas frequently shines. What about Yards per Target? Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Cardinals tight end Ricky Seals-Jones celebrates after catching a pass for a second quarter touchdown against the Jacksonville Jaguars at University of Phoenix Stadium. Hes ranked 22nd, ninth, and 13th in target percentage over the past three seasons. 1 in the latest NFL Football Power Index? He saw significant time in games sporadically throughout the year. Subscribe to Stathead Football: Get your first month FREEYour All-Access Ticket to the Pro Football Reference Database. We looked at every WR with 60+ targets* from 2020. No, we're not talking about the Minneapolis Miracle. 1:08 PM. The WOPR and YPRR look a bit different than other sources. He then has to catch the ball to gain additional yards. I hope that this deep dive has put yards per route run on your radar when evaluating wide receivers and making educated decisions when identifying breakout wide receivers. For the best in the game, these plays will occasionally pop for huge gains because of their elite speed and run-after-catch ability. Which QB makes the list? Beasley spent nearly all of his time in the slot, and as a result, his playing time was tied to the health of Miles Austin. We approached routes run by players aligned in the backfield separately from routes run by players aligned out wide, in the slot or tight, because of clear differences in route archetypes. A receiver can win with inside leverage against an outside corner who is trying to keep him from going deep, leaving the defender in the dust as he runs across the field at a shallow depth. NFL footage NFL Productions LLC. Can Carolina risk letting other teams chase after him? All other NFL-related trademarks are trademarks of the National Football League. I came into this article with the belief that the rate of yards per route run during a wide receivers rookie season was a fairly strong indicator for future success, but I wanted to take a deep dive to really be sure. A few moments ago, we used Year N YPRR to predict Year N+1 YPRR. CROE is catch rate over expectation, which measures performance relative to completion probabilities. Last month, we revealed a new set of rushing metrics derived from the ability to calculate Expected Rushing Yards. His opponents surely are, but you can't say they weren't warned: Thomas makes it clear with his Twitter handle that he can't be guarded. 2 and 3 on this list). With Jermaine Gresham recovering from an Achilles injury suffered in Week 17, Arizona beat writers are projecting Seals-Jones to enter camp as the starter and with an expanded role in the offense. Do Not Sell My Personal Information, Next Up - 2023 Superflex Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings (Fantasy Football), 189 K. Are you looking to contact Customer Support about a subscription or account related question? Playing with Drew Brees a former Super Bowl MVP who holds the NFL record for highest career completion percentage, most career passing yards and most career passing touchdowns certainly doesnt hurt. Let's see Thomas led all wide receivers in yards gained on hitches. It wasn't his frame but his footwork -- a fake outside, an adjustment upfield and a sharp cut at the top of the route -- that created the space necessary for a 51-yard catch-and-run on that play. One is to measure how consistent they are from year to year. Unlike running backs, weight and height are correlated to wide receiver and tight end production, because height expands the player's catch radius. View wide receiver stats for the 2022 NFL season. Well, now we have an answer to those questions and many more. There are various versions of this metric -- and it is quite useful in some applications -- but there is a fatal flaw when applying the concept to pass-catchers, as tempting as it might be. While Allen and Anderson finished below catch-rate expectation, Robinson shattered his, posting a mark of +37.9 percent and making it pretty easy to see who was best in this department. * Selected to Pro Bowl, + First-Team All-Pro. Beasley caught 72% of his targets in 2013; that sounds good, but its not out of line with the catch rate of a lot of other slot receivers. Among running backs, he ranks third in rushing fantasy points per game and first in receiving fantasy points per game. It's pretty simple: Thomas wins in the short game and will make you pay if you don't stop him. Next Gen Stats maven Mike Band crunches the numbers on seven crucial Super Bowl LVII matchups. Latest on Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson including news, stats, videos, highlights and more on ESPN Which game is featured at the top of NGS's unlikeliest victory rankings? Thomas' air-yards-per-target average was higher on crosses than his aforementioned overall average (9.6 to 8.1), and his catch rate above expectation was second to only Lockett among those with at least 20 targets on crosses. The top five and bottom five most versatile route runners from the 2019 season among 72 wide receivers with at least 300 routes: This only scratches the surface of the analysis possible with our route recognition. If he does not catch the pass, he is debited at minus-0.75. Ricky Seals-Jones ran only 68 routes last year but drew 28 targets for 201 yards and three touchdowns on those routes. It makes sense intuitively, as the more routes you run, the more targets you have available to you.